Special Forecasting Circumstances

Owned by Julie Leake (Unlicensed)
Last updated: Jun 29, 2018 by Carissa Warnock (Unlicensed)

There are two different concepts that 

RMS

uses to separate unique volume data from the regular forecasting methods so that the forecast numbers do not become distorted. In 

RMS

they are referred to as Events and Environments.

The following sections are intended to give the manager an overview of how these two methods function.

Events

They are used to separate the history for individual KBIs from the statistical or calculated forecast in order to not distort the forecast due to unique volumes for certain KBIs. For instance, New Years Eve each year is totally sold out throughout the property and all outlets are busy. Therefore, all KBIs in the property are affected.

Forecasting With Events

Since Events are associated with all KBIs in the property for specific dates, you do not have to do anything for 

RMS

to forecast upcoming event volumes. It will look at the history associated with the same date and use appropriate forecasting methodology to calculate the new volumes.

Note: The event KBIs will still calculate the same way as they do under normal circumstances. This means there might not be any values returned for the forecast until you have a significant number of these events with actual data in the system.

What Does This Do?

Creating events will NOT use the volumes for these days in forecasting for statistical and calculated KBI forecasts.

For example:

Assume you have designated New Years Eve (Dec 31) as an event. 

RMS

will exclude the volumes for this date when it forecasts volumes for the upcoming forecast period for all calculated and statistical KBIs.  

Note: The event KBIs will still calculate the same way as they do under normal circumstances. This means there might not be any values returned for the forecast until you have a significant number of these events with actual data in the system.

Environments

They are used to separate the history for individual KBIs from the statistical or calculated forecast in order to not distort the forecast due to unique volumes for certain KBIs. For instance, the pool has a special event that is open to the public. As a result, the pool bar and snack bar does exceptional business that has no direct relationship to rooms or guests. Therefore, you may not want these actual volumes used in the statistical or calculated forecasts for upcoming weeks for the associated pool bar and snack bar KBIs. This means that you would want to designate the KBIs that were used at the pool bar and snack bar as Environmental KBIs.

Note: The environmental KBIs will still calculate the same way as they do under normal circumstances. The difference is that they use a past average or a statistical relationship of the same type environmental KBI. This means you may not get any values returned for the forecast until you have a significant number of these environments with actual data in the system.

What Does This Do?

Selecting KBIs and designating them as particular environments will NOT use the volumes for these days in forecasting for statistical and calculated KBI forecasts.

For example:

Assume there are five KBIs associated with the revenue center of Pool Snack Bar. There was a huge outdoor concert yesterday that affected the Pool Snack Bar but no other operations. After you enter your actual volumes in the daily operations work, you use the Edit Actual Environments task to select the KBIs for the Pool Snack Bar and then use the drop down box to designate those KBIs as "Pool Concert." (This assumes you created an environment called "Pool Concert.")

The volumes associated with these KBIs will NOT be used to create upcoming weeks forecasts that are statistical or calculated. This will help prevent unusual forecast numbers from being generated.