Short- & Long-Term Forecasting

In most large-scale service industry properties, tremendous effort is devoted to anticipating guest or customer volume and meeting their needs. Managers accomplish this by providing and using available resources. The more managers know about volume and needs, the easier it is to prepare and properly provide service. In most cases, the key piece of information is volume. The essential purpose of a forecast is to develop volume projections and then determine the level of demand the anticipated volume creates.

Basically, there are two types of forecasts: short-term and long-term. Watson is most effective when producing short-term forecasts. That is, forecasts which look primarily one to two weeks into the future. The information gained from short-term forecasting can then be used in assisting the property to develop more accurate long-term forecasts (typically those a month to a year out).

Forecasts are based on the KBIs (Key Business Indicators) that have been established for the property, and how they are set up in the system.  Typically, the majority of KBIs in Watson fall under two major classifications: revenue centers or market segments. Revenue centers are created to enable you to configure KBI forecasting methodologies and to be able to edit those forecasts. Market segments are designed to go with Rooms forecasting. there are also some special forecasting circumstances.

Watson, R.M.™ is designed to be flexible while accommodating a wide-range of operational and service environments. Watson can be custom configured in great detail while taking into account your targeted market segments, revenue centers, room count, etc. Watson can also be easily updated with accurate data as circumstances change.

The key to creating an accurate forecast is to obtain necessary data on a regular and timely basis for input into Watson. To gain the maximum benefit from the software, and to ensure that it stays current, booked room counts must be entered prior to generating a room forecast, and actual volume counts must be entered each day. Failure to acquire necessary data or incorrectly entering data will result in inaccurate forecasts and plans. Since there is a natural tendency to accept numbers on paper as valid, it is extremely important that all numbers are carefully recorded and verified. When used properly, Watson is an effective and valuable management tool that lets management automatically produce accurate forecasts without maintaining myriad paper records.